BNPL economics
Start with a US dollar scenario. Adjust every assumption to match your product.
LOAD A BENCHMARK
Editable US dollar scenario, not a verified industry benchmark: 3.5% merchant fee, 1.8% losses, 5% funding cost.
INPUT LEVERS
AVERAGE ORDER VALUEUSD 200
Use your own transaction-level average
MERCHANT DISCOUNT RATE (%)3.5%
Market range: 2–8% (The Paypers, 2025)
NET LOSS RATE (% OF GMV)1.8%
Editable assumption; use observed cohort losses
COST OF FUNDS (% ANNUAL)5.00%
Use your actual funding agreement or term sheet
OPEX PER LOANUSD 5
Include KYC, servicing and support in your selected currency
NUMBER OF INSTALLMENTS4x
3–4 most common; 6–12 for high-ticket
MONTHLY LOAN VOLUME5,000
Scale matters: <5k = startup, >50k = scaled
AVERAGE LOAN TENOR (DAYS)45d
Consumer: 30–60d | B2B: 60–90d
UnsustainableNET MARGIN -1.42% OF GMV
Unit economics are negative. This is not a funding-gap problem — the model itself needs rethinking.
MONTHLY P&L
GMV
5,000 loans × USD 200
MDR Revenue
3.5% of GMV
Credit Loss
1.8% of GMV
Cost of Funds
5.00% p.a. × 45d avg tenor
Operating Costs
USD 5 × 5,000 loans
Net Contribution
PER LOAN · ANNUALISED
Revenue per loan
Net per loan
Gross margin %
Annual GMV run-rate
Annual net contribution
REVENUE WATERFALL (monthly)
MDR Revenue+ USD 35.0K
Credit Loss− USD 18.0K
Cost of Funds− USD 6.2K
OpEx− USD 25.0K
NET CONTRIBUTION− USD 14.2K
MARKET CONTEXT
Global BNPL market, 2025
USD 560B (The Paypers)
MENA consumer MDR range
2.5–5.5% (public filings)
AI used for Pay Later
39% of US consumers (PYMNTS 2026)
Open to AI-driven BNPL
61% of US consumers (PYMNTS 2026)
UAE BNPL players
Tabby, Tamara, Cashew, Postpay
Avg B2C loss rate (MENA)
1–3% of GMV (public benchmarks)
DELINQUENCY HEADROOM
-1.4ptsbetween your modeled loss rate (1.8%) and the rate that breaks this model (0.4%)
No real buffer — losses are already at or past what the economics can carry. Fix MDR, tenor or risk mix before scaling volume.
SHOCK TEST · LOSSES +50% · FUNDING +200BPS
REGULATION AS DESIGN
- Cap tickets and terms by income band — affordability embedded, not bolted on
- Transparent fees and hardship options designed in as product features
- Cohort tracking by merchant, product and acquisition path from day one
- Map US federal and state consumer-credit obligations before launch
OPERATOR HEURISTIC: MATURE BOOKS TARGET ~1% LOSS · RULE OF THUMB, NOT A VERIFIED BENCHMARK
INDICATIVE MODEL — NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE